Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 7 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | 18.2% | 28.4% | -10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.7% | -15.6 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 71.2% | +12.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 73.7% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restoring Embers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |